Satellite-Based Quantification of Contrail Radiative Forcing over Europe: A Two-Week Analysis of Aviation-Induced Climate Effects

A new E-CONTRAIL study submitted to SESAR Innovation Days 2024 investigates the relationship between aviation-induced contrails and their impact on radiative forcing (RF), using satellite imagery from the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG). The research, led by Irene Ortiz (UC3M) and conducted over a two-week period, aims to fill a critical knowledge gap in understanding how contrails contribute to climate dynamics, particularly their net warming effect, despite uncertainties in measuring their radiative impacts.

Abstract

Aviation's non-CO2 effects, especially the impact of aviation-induced contrails, drive atmospheric changes and can influence climate dynamics. Although contrails are believed to contribute to global warming through their net warming effect, uncertainties persist due to the challenges in accurately measuring their radiative impacts. This study aims to address this knowledge gap by investigating the relationship between aviation-induced contrails, as observed in Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellite imagery, and their impact on radiative forcing (RF) over a two-week study. Results show that while daytime contrails generally have a cooling effect, the higher number of nighttime contrails results in a net warming effect over the entire day. Net RF values for detected contrails range approximately from -8 TW to 2.5 TW during the day and from 0 to 6 TW at night. Our findings also show a 41.03% increase in contrail coverage from January 24-30, 2023, to the same week in 2024, accompanied by a 128.7% rise in contrail radiative forcing (CRF), indicating greater warming from the added contrails. These findings highlight the necessity of considering temporal factors, such as the timing and duration of contrail formation, when assessing their overall warming impact. They also indicate a potential increase in contrail-induced warming from 2023 to 2024, attributable to the rise in contrail coverage. Further investigation into these trends is crucial for the development of effective mitigation strategies.

Irene Ortiz, Ermioni Dimitropoulou, Pierre de Buyl, Nicolas Clerbaux, Javier García-Heras, Amin Jafarimoghaddam, Hugues Brenot, Jeroen van Gent, Klaus Sievers, Evelyn Otero, Parthiban Loganathan, Manuel Soler. Satellite-Based Quantification of Contrail Radiative Forcing over Europe: A Two-Week Analysis of Aviation-Induced Climate Effects. Submitted to SESAR Innovation Days 2024. Pre-Print @ https://arxiv.org/abs/2409.10166